St. John's

Conference:	BE
Expected RPI:	92.0
Current RPI:	92
Expected SOS:	9
Current SOS:	9
Current Record:	15-17
Expected Record:	15-17
Current Conf Record:	5-15
Expected Conf Record:	5-15
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	2-4
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	1-8
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	3-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	6-3
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	3-0
Current OOC Record:	10-2
Expected OOC Record:	10-2
Expected OOC RPI:	17
Expected OOC SOS:	45

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
15-17	92.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for St. John's.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	New Orleans (239.0)	Slnd	H	77-61	W	100%
11-14	Central Connecticut (263.0)	NEC	H	80-55	W	100%
11-16	Nebraska (56.0)	B10	H	79-56	W	100%
11-23	Oregon St. (137.0)	P12	N	77-82	W	100%
11-24	Missouri (43.0)	SEC	N	82-90	L	0%
11-26	UCF (84.0)	Amer	N	43-46	W	100%
12-2	Sacred Heart (321.0)	NEC	H	90-55	W	100%
12-5	Grand Canyon (156.0)	WAC	N	60-68	W	100%
12-8	Arizona St. (66.0)	P12	N	82-70	L	0%
12-17	Iona (107.0)	MAAC	H	69-59	W	100%
12-20	Saint Joseph's (147.0)	A10	N	77-73	W	100%
12-28	Providence (32.0)	BE	H	72-94	L	0%
12-31	Seton Hall (31.0)	BE	A	75-70	L	0%
1-3	Creighton (44.0)	BE	A	78-71	L	0%
1-6	DePaul (186.0)	BE	H	74-91	L	0%
1-9	Georgetown (169.0)	BE	H	66-69	L	0%
1-13	Villanova (2.0)	BE	H	71-78	L	0%
1-17	Xavier (3.0)	BE	A	88-82	L	0%
1-20	Georgetown (169.0)	BE	A	93-89	L	0%
1-23	Creighton (44.0)	BE	H	63-68	L	0%
1-27	Butler (41.0)	BE	A	70-45	L	0%
1-30	Xavier (3.0)	BE	H	68-73	L	0%
2-3	Duke (7.0)	ACC	H	81-77	W	100%
2-7	Villanova (2.0)	BE	A	75-79	W	100%
2-10	Marquette (58.0)	BE	H	86-78	W	100%
2-14	DePaul (186.0)	BE	A	76-77	W	100%
2-21	Marquette (58.0)	BE	A	85-73	L	0%
2-24	Seton Hall (31.0)	BE	H	74-81	L	0%
2-28	Butler (41.0)	BE	H	75-68	W	100%
3-3	Providence (32.0)	BE	A	61-57	L	0%
3-7	Georgetown (169.0)	BE	N	88-77	W	100%
3-8	Xavier (3.0)	BE	N	60-88	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

St. John's's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

St. John's's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against St. John's.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
St. John's	BE	26.42	26.42	42.57	42.57	-3.93	-3.93
Xavier	BE	5.59	5.59	83.33	83.33	3.73	3.73
Georgetown	BE	5.50	5.50	48.15	48.15	-0.20	-0.20
Providence	BE	4.20	4.20	59.38	59.38	0.79	0.79
Villanova	BE	4.17	4.17	90.62	90.62	3.39	3.39
Butler	BE	4.10	4.10	61.29	61.29	0.93	0.93
Marquette	BE	4.10	4.10	60.00	60.00	0.82	0.82
DePaul	BE	4.07	4.07	34.48	34.48	-1.26	-1.26
Creighton	BE	4.07	4.07	62.07	62.07	0.98	0.98
Seton Hall	BE	4.05	4.05	63.33	63.33	1.08	1.08
Arizona St.	P12	1.68	1.68	63.33	63.33	0.45	0.45
Central Connecticut	NEC	1.66	1.66	45.16	45.16	-0.16	-0.16
Sacred Heart	NEC	1.66	1.66	31.03	31.03	-0.63	-0.63
Nebraska	B10	1.64	1.64	70.97	70.97	0.69	0.69
Oregon St.	P12	1.61	1.61	51.61	51.61	0.05	0.05
UCF	Amer	1.61	1.61	61.29	61.29	0.36	0.36
Saint Joseph's	A10	1.61	1.61	51.61	51.61	0.05	0.05
Missouri	SEC	1.59	1.59	60.00	60.00	0.32	0.32
Duke	ACC	1.56	1.56	81.25	81.25	0.98	0.98
Grand Canyon	WAC	1.56	1.56	67.74	67.74	0.55	0.55
Iona	MAAC	1.56	1.56	62.50	62.50	0.39	0.39
New Orleans	Slnd	1.56	1.56	44.44	44.44	-0.17	-0.17
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.23	0.23	53.33	53.33	0.02	0.02
Wagner	NEC	0.20	0.20	70.00	70.00	0.08	0.08
Fairleigh Dickinson	NEC	0.17	0.17	37.93	37.93	-0.04	-0.04
Colorado	P12	0.17	0.17	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Wisconsin	B10	0.17	0.17	45.45	45.45	-0.02	-0.02
Rhode Island	A10	0.17	0.17	78.12	78.12	0.09	0.09
Rider	MAAC	0.16	0.16	70.97	70.97	0.07	0.07
Maine	AE	0.15	0.15	13.33	13.33	-0.11	-0.11
Northwestern	B10	0.15	0.15	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Oregon	P12	0.15	0.15	64.71	64.71	0.04	0.04
Illinois	B10	0.15	0.15	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Utah	P12	0.15	0.15	63.33	63.33	0.04	0.04
Saint Peter's	MAAC	0.15	0.15	43.75	43.75	-0.02	-0.02
Boston College	ACC	0.14	0.14	55.88	55.88	0.02	0.02
Washington	P12	0.14	0.14	62.50	62.50	0.04	0.04
Saint Louis	A10	0.14	0.14	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Alabama A&M	SWAC	0.13	0.13	9.68	9.68	-0.10	-0.10
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.13	0.13	16.67	16.67	-0.09	-0.09
Syracuse	ACC	0.13	0.13	60.61	60.61	0.03	0.03
Robert Morris	NEC	0.13	0.13	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
St. Francis PA	NEC	0.12	0.12	57.14	57.14	0.02	0.02
UCLA	P12	0.12	0.12	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Houston	Amer	0.12	0.12	78.79	78.79	0.07	0.07
Rutgers	B10	0.12	0.12	42.42	42.42	-0.02	-0.02
VCU	A10	0.12	0.12	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Baylor	B12	0.12	0.12	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Purdue	B10	0.12	0.12	82.35	82.35	0.08	0.08
Cincinnati	Amer	0.12	0.12	88.24	88.24	0.09	0.09
Manhattan	MAAC	0.12	0.12	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Temple	Amer	0.12	0.12	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Morehead St.	OVC	0.12	0.12	22.22	22.22	-0.07	-0.07
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.12	0.12	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.10	0.10	15.62	15.62	-0.07	-0.07
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.10	0.10	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
North Texas	CUSA	0.10	0.10	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Richmond	A10	0.10	0.10	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.10	0.10	60.71	60.71	0.02	0.02
Bryant	NEC	0.10	0.10	9.68	9.68	-0.08	-0.08
LIU Brooklyn	NEC	0.10	0.10	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.10	0.10	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Arizona	P12	0.10	0.10	79.41	79.41	0.06	0.06
Georgia	SEC	0.10	0.10	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.10	0.10	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Michigan St.	B10	0.10	0.10	87.88	87.88	0.07	0.07
Long Beach St.	BW	0.10	0.10	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
USC	P12	0.10	0.10	67.65	67.65	0.03	0.03
Washington St.	P12	0.10	0.10	38.71	38.71	-0.02	-0.02
Notre Dame	ACC	0.10	0.10	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.10	0.10	20.00	20.00	-0.06	-0.06
Chicago St.	WAC	0.10	0.10	3.33	3.33	-0.09	-0.09
Wichita St.	Amer	0.10	0.10	78.12	78.12	0.05	0.05
Indiana	B10	0.10	0.10	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Louisville	ACC	0.10	0.10	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Utah Valley	WAC	0.10	0.10	65.52	65.52	0.03	0.03
Gonzaga	WCC	0.10	0.10	88.24	88.24	0.07	0.07
Monmouth	MAAC	0.10	0.10	35.48	35.48	-0.03	-0.03
George Washington	A10	0.10	0.10	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.10	0.10	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Connecticut	Amer	0.09	0.09	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
La Salle	A10	0.09	0.09	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
Massachusetts	A10	0.09	0.09	39.39	39.39	-0.02	-0.02
Minnesota	B10	0.09	0.09	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.08	0.08	30.77	30.77	-0.03	-0.03
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.08	0.08	63.33	63.33	0.02	0.02
Howard	MEAC	0.08	0.08	25.81	25.81	-0.04	-0.04
Jacksonville	ASun	0.08	0.08	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Memphis	Amer	0.08	0.08	61.76	61.76	0.02	0.02
SMU	Amer	0.08	0.08	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Miami OH	MAC	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
California	P12	0.07	0.07	25.81	25.81	-0.04	-0.04
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.07	0.07	6.67	6.67	-0.06	-0.06
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.07	0.07	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
North Dakota	BSky	0.07	0.07	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Stanford	P12	0.07	0.07	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Yale	Ivy	0.07	0.07	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
LSU	SEC	0.07	0.07	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Houston Baptist	Slnd	0.07	0.07	10.71	10.71	-0.06	-0.06
East Carolina	Amer	0.07	0.07	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.07	0.07	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
George Mason	A10	0.07	0.07	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.07	0.07	83.33	83.33	0.05	0.05
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.07	0.07	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
UMKC	WAC	0.07	0.07	27.59	27.59	-0.03	-0.03
Marist	MAAC	0.07	0.07	19.35	19.35	-0.04	-0.04
NJIT	ASun	0.07	0.07	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Lafayette	Pat	0.07	0.07	30.00	30.00	-0.03	-0.03
Maryland	B10	0.07	0.07	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Ohio St.	B10	0.07	0.07	75.00	75.00	0.04	0.04
Princeton	Ivy	0.07	0.07	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee	SEC	0.07	0.07	75.76	75.76	0.04	0.04
East Tennessee St.	SC	0.07	0.07	71.88	71.88	0.03	0.03
Fairfield	MAAC	0.07	0.07	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Furman	SC	0.07	0.07	67.74	67.74	0.03	0.03
Hampton	MEAC	0.07	0.07	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Marshall	CUSA	0.07	0.07	69.70	69.70	0.03	0.03
North Carolina	ACC	0.07	0.07	71.43	71.43	0.03	0.03
Portland St.	BSky	0.07	0.07	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Texas	B12	0.07	0.07	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Brown	Ivy	0.07	0.07	38.46	38.46	-0.02	-0.02
Penn	Ivy	0.07	0.07	74.19	74.19	0.03	0.03
Incarnate Word	Slnd	0.06	0.06	12.50	12.50	-0.04	-0.04
McNeese St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	32.00	32.00	-0.02	-0.02
Northwestern St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	8.00	8.00	-0.05	-0.05
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.05	0.05	80.00	80.00	0.03	0.03
Hartford	AE	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
UMass Lowell	AE	0.05	0.05	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Arkansas	SEC	0.05	0.05	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
Kentucky	SEC	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Mississippi	SEC	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Portland	WCC	0.05	0.05	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.05	0.05	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
Texas A&M	SEC	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
USC Upstate	ASun	0.05	0.05	10.71	10.71	-0.04	-0.04
UT Arlington	SB	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Holy Cross	Pat	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Alabama	SEC	0.05	0.05	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Kansas	B12	0.05	0.05	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
Longwood	BSth	0.05	0.05	13.33	13.33	-0.04	-0.04
West Virginia	B12	0.05	0.05	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Florida	SEC	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
American	Pat	0.05	0.05	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Cal St. Bakersfield	WAC	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Fordham	A10	0.05	0.05	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Michigan	B10	0.05	0.05	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
Penn St.	B10	0.05	0.05	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Seattle	WAC	0.05	0.05	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
South Florida	Amer	0.05	0.05	31.25	31.25	-0.02	-0.02
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Stetson	ASun	0.05	0.05	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
Texas Tech	B12	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
UT Rio Grande Valley	WAC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Vermont	AE	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Southern	SWAC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Canisius	MAAC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.05	0.05	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
Niagara	MAAC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.02	-0.02
Siena	MAAC	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.02	-0.02
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Wake Forest	ACC	0.05	0.05	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Western Illinois	Sum	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Belmont	OVC	0.05	0.05	72.73	72.73	0.02	0.02
Columbia	Ivy	0.05	0.05	26.92	26.92	-0.02	-0.02
Hofstra	CAA	0.05	0.05	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Stony Brook	AE	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Western Kentucky	CUSA	0.05	0.05	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Abilene Christian	Slnd	0.03	0.03	44.44	44.44	-0.00	-0.00
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Lamar	Slnd	0.03	0.03	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.03	0.03	80.65	80.65	0.02	0.02
Oakland	Horz	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
South Alabama	SB	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
UAB	CUSA	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Binghamton	AE	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.03	0.03	23.08	23.08	-0.01	-0.01
Auburn	SEC	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.01	0.01
Green Bay	Horz	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Idaho St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Iowa St.	B12	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Kansas St.	B12	0.03	0.03	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
North Florida	ASun	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.03	0.03	13.33	13.33	-0.02	-0.02
Pacific	WCC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
San Diego St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
San Francisco	WCC	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
South Carolina	SEC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
UC Irvine	BW	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.02	0.02	40.00	40.00	-0.00	-0.00
Boise St.	MWC	0.02	0.02	73.33	73.33	0.01	0.01
Bucknell	Pat	0.02	0.02	73.53	73.53	0.01	0.01
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.02	0.02	32.35	32.35	-0.01	-0.01
Davidson	A10	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Dayton	A10	0.02	0.02	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Duquesne	A10	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.02	0.02	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.02	0.02	24.24	24.24	-0.01	-0.01
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.02	0.02	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Grambling St.	SWAC	0.02	0.02	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Harvard	Ivy	0.02	0.02	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
Iowa	B10	0.02	0.02	42.42	42.42	-0.00	-0.00
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.02	0.02	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Little Rock	SB	0.02	0.02	20.00	20.00	-0.01	-0.01
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.02	0.02	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Mercer	SC	0.02	0.02	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.02	0.02	12.50	12.50	-0.02	-0.02
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.02	0.02	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.02	0.02	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.02	0.02	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.02	0.02	16.67	16.67	-0.02	-0.02
San Diego	WCC	0.02	0.02	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.02	0.02	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Utah	BSky	0.02	0.02	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Toledo	MAC	0.02	0.02	66.67	66.67	0.01	0.01
Tulane	Amer	0.02	0.02	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Tulsa	Amer	0.02	0.02	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
UC Riverside	BW	0.02	0.02	24.14	24.14	-0.01	-0.01
UTSA	CUSA	0.02	0.02	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
William & Mary	CAA	0.02	0.02	58.62	58.62	0.00	0.00
Wyoming	MWC	0.02	0.02	59.38	59.38	0.00	0.00
Albany	AE	0.02	0.02	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
Clemson	ACC	0.02	0.02	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Coastal Carolina	SB	0.02	0.02	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Elon	CAA	0.02	0.02	40.00	40.00	-0.00	-0.00
Evansville	MVC	0.02	0.02	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Florida St.	ACC	0.02	0.02	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.02	0.02	40.62	40.62	-0.00	-0.00
Miami FL	ACC	0.02	0.02	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Northern Kentucky	Horz	0.02	0.02	68.97	68.97	0.01	0.01
Ohio	MAC	0.02	0.02	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Quinnipiac	MAAC	0.02	0.02	36.36	36.36	-0.01	-0.01
South Dakota	Sum	0.02	0.02	73.33	73.33	0.01	0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.02	0.02	93.94	93.94	0.02	0.02
Weber St.	BSky	0.02	0.02	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01